Cast aluminum alloy officially listed today, with a price increase of over 4% on the first day [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Comment]

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis

SMM News on June 10:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,075 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,010 yuan/mt, a low of 19,925 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,980 yuan/mt, down 0.12%. Trading volume was 149,000 lots, and open interest was 184,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: On the macro front, the phone call between China and the US may lead to a de-escalation of the trade war, while the rebound in China's May manufacturing PMI and improvement in export indicators provide demand support, indicating that the domestic economy remains resilient. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters remained stable, with a decrease in casting ingot volume prompting a temporary destocking trend in domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, the impact of the Guinea ore incident on alumina prices has eased somewhat, and the real-time cost of aluminum has slightly declined MoM. On the demand side, there is dual pressure from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure in the short term, with the off-season atmosphere intensifying. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,906 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,920 yuan/mt, a low of 2,827 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,886 yuan/mt, down 0.31%. Trading volume was 354,000 lots, and open interest was 295,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: Last week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 600,000 mt/year to 87.27 million mt/year. It is understood that some imported alumina has arrived at Chinese ports, with supply recovering while demand has not changed significantly. Last week, the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 mt to 2.63 million mt. As of June 9, the price of imported alumina has turned from profit to loss, and the import window has closed. In the short term, the alumina market fundamentals will remain relatively loose, and alumina spot prices are expected to be in the doldrums. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises.

Today, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,500 yuan/mt, a low of 19,070 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,190 yuan/mt, up 4.49%. Trading volume was 52,000 lots, and open interest was 9,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: At 9:00 a.m. on June 10, cast aluminum alloy futures were officially listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The listing benchmark prices for the AD2511, AD2512, AD2601, AD2602, AD2603, AD2604, and AD2605 contracts were 18,365 yuan/mt. In the morning opening, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract once surged by more than 5%, and although the gains slightly pulled back later, they remained at around 4%. By the end of the day session, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 19,190 yuan/mt, up 4.649%. Regarding the reasons for the significant increase in the opening price of cast aluminum alloy futures, it is widely believed in the industry that the benchmark listing price of the futures was significantly lower than the spot price, driven by a clear bullish market sentiment. SMM suggests focusing on the price range of 19,000-19,500 yuan/mt on the first day. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM spot quotes, as of June 10, after a decrease of 100 yuan/mt, the SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy spot quote fell to 19,800-20,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 19,900 yuan/mt.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]